Gold & Silver; Lack of Conviction
Low volume and lacklustre price action has kept gold and silver prices within a tight range as traders are waiting on the side line for further news. Not only is it lack of conviction from either camp, the lack of direction frustrates traders to hold on to their trades. Technically, another low was made and sellers take cover due to continued weakness in the US dollar index. Equity markets have not seen better days as it yo-yo up and down. Threat of US government shutdown by the 17th October seems imminent and further discussion among politicians will be the main headline. Talks of tapering in October are nonsensical given that the last FOMC conference of keeping $ 85 billion QE programme will take time to work. Changing their view within a month shows lack of competency among existing Fed members and the market will question it. We expect prices to break below $ 1300 on the continued bearish sentiment towards the yellow metal. However, expect increase volatility as the market brace for the result on US debt ceiling that could throw out a few surprises.
Gold Technical Outlook
Daily
Chart
The
current price action has unwound previous kneejerk reaction post FOMC
statement and back to square one. Prospect of tapering has capped the
upside and gold faced strong resistances. Technically, a bearish head
and shoulder formation could form with a neckline at $ 1278 area.
Should gold break below $ 1275, previous low at $ 1180 seems highly
probable. On the other hand, there is a small possibility to retest
resistance level at $ 1345 to $ 1355 area but expect strong
resistance. Political instability in Italy and the US debt ceiling
could fuel another small rally but Edward Meir of INTL argued that it
will be a short span before selling continues. At the moment,
patience while trading in the trendless market is the best advice.
Resistance: $ 1415, $ 1455, $ 1525 Support: $ 1278, $ 1210, $ 1180 |
Traders Notes:
Short only if it break $ 1290 level. Going long
on a break above $ 1380 - the target will be previous high.
Short Term (1 - 3 weeks) | Medium Term (1 - 3 months) | Long Term (6- 12 months) |
Bearish target $ 1210 | Bearish - $ 1180 | Bearish |
Silver Technical Outlook
Daily Chart
A
bottom price action often takes longer to form and there is an
argument here that the silver price action could form a W double
bottom reversal. The argument is only viable if the price managed to
trade above the support at $ 21.20 area and retraced to overcome
resistance at $ $ 23.50 area. However, analyst from Commerzbank
argued that the white metal corrective rally has ended and the
revisit to previous low at $ 20.00 is possible now. The current
trendless market left many uncertain to commit in either direction
but both arguments are valid. We favour continued weakness in the
next few weeks but cautious on any surprise on gold price action.
Resistance: $ 23.45, $ 23.90, $ 24.53 Support: $ 21.25, $20.80, $ 19.50 |
Traders Notes: Looking to short if it break and close below $ 21.30.
Buy at $ 20.35 for a potential corrective rally.
Short Term (1 - 3 weeks) | Medium Term (1 - 3 months) | Long Term (6 - 12 months) |
Possible retest of $ 20.60 area | Bearish $ 20.00 area | Bullish - a potential bull run? |
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27 Sep 2013 | Categories: Gold