Gold & Silver; Syria Dependent
After last Friday NFP data, gold and silver made headline as both metals surged and close higher. The weekly chart shows how the week ending with a Doji candlestick - reflecting that the bulls and bears are fighting tooth and nails but the result in indecision. Bulls tried to push higher but managed only as high as $ 1416 area before the bears take gold for a spin to retest support at $ 1358 area. A worse than expected data was the element of surprise as investors may have over positioned on lower prices. Their expectation was for a good number to seal the deal on September tapering. After the result, such action was thrown into question if the Fed should taper at all. Equity market wild swings allowed swing traders to profit going long and short but it shows great volatility as we draw closer to FOMC meeting on the 17th and 18th September.
put everything in perspective, geopolitical risk continues to ride on
the background while the global economy faced with another test of
new monetary policy. The Fed will go ahead with a small tapering to
begin with and should the ensuing data come worse than expected then
expect a reversal in their attitude on tapering. We anticipate an
increase in market volatility and the market remains in tenterhooks
about the amount of tapering that will be carried out. We argued
again that tapering effect will fizzle out and make way for a bigger
headline such as the potential Syria War and US debt ceiling.
We are making the case that in the short term we see continue pressure on the downside on gold and silver but both will find support before resuming higher. Both market seems to setup for “sell the rumour, buy the fact” scenario.
Gold Technical Outlook
Gold continue to trade in the uptrend line while undergoing minor correction. Only a breach below the lower uptrend line will give the bears more ammunition to head lower. David Govett of Marex Spectron argued that gold price is well supported from geopolitical tension but he see weaker prices given that the FOMC meeting next week will vote on tapering. This view is also shared by Edward Meir of INTL who see a stronger rally in USD index and gold set to break lower after the corrective rebound. The daily RSI at 54.00 is providing some support for now while the stochastic is heading lower. Meanwhile, the MACD continue to trade on positive ground but MACD line has crossed over Signal line which could indicate a pullback. We advised caution and buy on the dip as we draw closer to the FOMC meeting minute.
|Resistance: $ 1434, $ 1455, $ 1525 Support: $ 1353, $ 1275, $ 1210|
Traders Notes: Short at $ 1345 stop $ 1353 target $ 1300. Long at $ 1356 and $ 1366 stop at $ 1348 target a rebound to $ 1430. Long position at 1366 is in effect and stop moved to $ 1380.
|Short Term (1 - 3 weeks)||Medium Term (1 - 3 months)||Long Term (6- 12 months)|
|Bullish - target 1475||Bearish - target 1353||Target $ 1500 / $ 1600|
Silver Technical Outlook
4 hourly Chart
Post NFP data, silver managed to rally as much as 70 points and the current price action suggest consolidation is in the play. Support at $ 23.00 remains strong and only a break below will enable to short sellers to trigger stop loss in that area. We argued that failure to break higher on a worse than expected NFP data could be another opportunity to short the white metal with a potential retest of $ 23.00 and even to test $ 22.50 level. The technical chart shows that RSI is hovering at 48 areas and there are rooms for further downside should it breach key support level.
|Resistance: $ 25.12, $ 26.90, $ 27.35 Support: $ 23.10, $22.50, $ 21.50|
Traders Notes: Buy if break $ 24.40 and add on the break of previous high. Short trade has hit stop that was moved below breakeven. New short if it breaks and close below $ 23.00.
|Short Term (1 - 3 weeks)||Medium Term (1 - 3 months)||Long Term (6 - 12 months)|
|Retest $ 22.00 and $ 21.70 area||Expect consolidation to retest support at $ 22.70||Bullish - a potential bull run?|
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10 Sep 2013 | Categories: Gold