LAWRIE WILLIAMS: All fall down? Is the predicted crash starting to hit?
As I switched on my computer this morning I was faced with a sea of red ink! Equity prices were down across the board – in the U.S., Asia and Europe and no doubt elsewhere too. Most major stock indices were down by between 1 and 3% yesterday and in early trade today with the NASDAQ being particularly hard hit. The markets are currently mostly moving on whether a trade and tariff war between the U.S. and China is imminent or not and prospects and views on this are mixed. Tech stocks too, which have been responsible for much of the peaking of the markets earlier this year, have also been falling out of favour.
Bitcoin (BTC) was this morning stuttering down below the $8,000 level – around 60% off its high point achieved only a month and a half ago - and if Ethereum is a pointer, with it down at $450 as I write, the next leg down for BTC could well be to around $6,000. (When Bitcoin and Ethereum were at their respective peaks early in the year BTC was trading at about 14x the Ethereum price.)
In the precious metals, gold, silver and the pgms were all down as well, although perhaps not by nearly as much in percentage terms as the equity markets. The dollar Index was one of the few positives showing a tiny gain but it was still stuttering well below the 90 level and thus around 13% lower against other currencies than it was when President Trump came into office some 14 months ago. Obviously a strong dollar is not part of ‘making America great again’.
So what has changed? The U.S. Fed seems to be committed to raising interest rates perhaps at a faster rate than had previously been anticipated with higher rate targets for 2019 and 2020. Wall Street may not be liking this prospect. But perhaps it is the sudden recent downturn in the FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google), following Facebook’s problems, which is a primary cause of the falls in the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ (in particular). High flyer Tesla is also a significant contributor to the Wall Street sell-off and when Wall Street falls equities worldwide tend to follow its lead.
Is this the start of the equities crash many commentators have been predicting – and if so how will it affect gold and the other precious metals? It’s probably too early to say, but after almost nine years of virtually uninterrupted rises in the equities indices we suspect something will have to give – indeed it may already have started. We’ve already seen the bitcoin bubble burst and, as noted above, we feel the cryptos may yet have further to fall until the bottom is reached. Are equities next?
What will have changed with the latest downturns is investor sentiment. Equity increases look to no longer be the ‘sure thing’ that they were, buoyed up by the Fed’s Quantitative Easing policy which poured increased liquidity into the markets. Now the Fed’s policy is in reverse with what many observers now refer to as Quantitative Tightening. If history is anything to go by, equities markets may well suffer as a consequence of a rising interest rate path, at least initially.
Precious metals have moved up from their lows, but down again from their subsequent interim peaks, with gold reaching around the $1,355 mark which has proved to provide strong resistance on the upside. It has since fallen back to the low $1,330s and is still looking vulnerable, with silver following a somewhat similar pattern. The pgms seem to be treading a slightly different path as befits their industrial metal status. The gold:silver ratio (GSR) remains above 81 which usually suggests silver is a better buy than gold – the late Ian McAvity used to say buy silver if ratio above 80, but buy gold if ratio 40 or below which has proved to be pretty wise advice over the years, although the 40 level hasn’t been seen since 2011 when it touched 33.7. We’d probably suggest a range of buying silver with a GSR of 80 and above and gold with a GSR of 60 and below as being good advice under more recent price patterns and with more modest expectations!
Where are we now? If I were an investor in U.S. equities or in bitcoin I’d be nervous and with global markets tending to follow Wall Street that nervousness would tend to extend to any major global markets. Watch U.S./China trade negotiations and don’t necessarily trust either side to keep to any promises made to the other. I would prefer gold and silver as safer investments than equities and see bitcoin as pure speculation with the potential to crash much further than it has already. Precious metals may well see some falls but these are unlikely to be of the kind of magnitude which could befall equities so we’d continue with the theme of using gold, and perhaps silver, as wealth insurance. They may not see major gains if equities collapse, but they shouldn’t see major falls either and, as in 2009 in the aftermath of the last big financial meltdown, they will probably recover far faster.
28 Mar 2018
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