LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Even another flash crash can’t keep gold price down
2 million ounces of gold were dumped on the gold market in a minute on Friday, just ahead of Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole – and, apart from a brief downwards spike to below $1,280, the gold price rapidly climbed back to unchanged. This has to be an incredibly bullish signal for gold in that even this amount of presumably paper gold thrown at it (62.2 tonnes) couldn’t keep the gold price down. Bloomberg described the 2 million ounce trade as ‘mysterious’ but at least that is perhaps a welcome change from the usual ‘fat finger’ attribution which seems to be applied to these seemingly increasingly frequent mega-sales of paper gold which, despite protestations to the contrary, seem to be designed to keep the gold price suppressed.
Today, the gold price drifted upwards ahead of New York’s opening and then, at around 11.00 am New York time the price spiked upwards sharply, soaring through the $1,300 psychological barrier. The question is where to next?
The key here may well be what has been happening with physical gold. On Friday the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) had almost 6 tonnes of gold bought into it. GLD has thus seen 18.33 tonnes of physical gold added to it in 2 weeks after what we might describe as ‘mysteriously’ seeing some 80 tonnes withdrawn over the prvious two months - during which time the gold price didn’t seem to be spooked by this amount of gold being taken out of the world’s biggest gold ETF. We had already pointed out the anomaly that America’s second biggest gold ETF – the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) – had not seen corresponding metal liquidations. The Swiss gold import and export statistics, also reported in these pages, had shown that there appears to be a ready market for any physical gold released in the west, and this could well be a sign that gold could be moving into a short supply situation in the West. If America starts buying physical gold again, we could thus see big price rises with buyers bidding up what might be an increasingly rare commodity.
As I write, the gold price rise seems to have stalled at the $1,306-7 level and there will almost certainly be attempts to drive it down, or at least prevent it rising further. But it does seem to have some momentum behind it and could well move up to the $1,320s. But, as we have pointed out before, this time next week is the U.S. Labor Day holiday and this often seems to provide an inflection point in economic trends. It could presage a sell-off in gold or see the price boosted into the stratosphere, figuratively speaking. Nothing is simple with gold. But if gold gets a boost after September 4th we could see equities – and perhaps bitcoin – moving sharply in the other direction. Both would seem to be in bubble situations and sooner or later all bubbles burst.
We’d rather bet on gold than alternatives. Even if there is a turndown ahead it is likely to be relatively minor, while the fall, when it comes, as come it must, in equities and bitcoin could be devastating. Food for thought ahead of the U.S. holiday weekend.
28 Aug 2017