Positive Start to Flows into Gold This Year
The U.S. Comex gold futures have risen in four consecutive weeks and were up 3.29% year-to-date as of 21 January. After the U.S. holiday on Monday, the gold futures tumbled 0.81%, the largest daily decline since 30 December, 2013. This year, the gold futures have outperformed the S&P 500 Index, the Euro Stoxx 50 Index, and the Dollar Index, which returned -0.18%, 1.54% and 1.33% respectively. The U.S. 10-year government bond yield is steady this week at around 2.82%.
Faster Global Growth and China’s Growth Ease
On
Tuesday, the IMF revised up its 2014 global economic growth to 3.7%
from 3.6% last October as the IMF raised the growth rate of the U.S.,
Japan, the U.K., and China but revised down the growth rate of some
other large emerging countries such as Russia and Brazil. China’s Q4
GDP momentum slowed to 1.8% compared to a forecast of 2% and 2.2% in Q3.
While retail sales and fixed asset investment grew in line with
expectation last year, the 2H aggregate credit in China has declined
roughly 30% from the first half of 2013 due to cash crunch among the
smaller banks and the scrutiny on local debt and shadow financing.
Steady economic growth in China will help support physical demand, which
is the key positive driver for gold currently. Analysts estimate that
Chinese gold imports exceeded 1,000 tons in 2013 and will likely be
around 900 tons in 2014.
Investors Positioning Before the Next Fed Meeting
Ahead
of the 28-29 January FOMC meeting, investors have expected continued QE
tapering by the Fed. However, the flows into gold have become more
positive this year. The speculators have increased their net long gold
combined positions by 7.6% during the week of 14 January, helped by
speculators establishing fresh long positions. Last Friday, the SPDR
Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF, saw the largest percentage increase in
holdings since November 2011. The U.S. Mint January gold coin sales
will likely see the highest monthly jump since April 2013. However, the
Barclay’s economists expect the Fed to focus a bit more on inflation
development and expectations in 2014, which should also draw gold
investors’ attentions.
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22 Jan 2014 | Categories: Gold
