SHARPS PIXLEY SEES PLATINUM AVERAGE AT $1268/oz, PALLADIUM AVERAGE AT $876/oz in 2015
AVERAGE : $1268
HIGH : $1480
LOW : $1120
As an industrial metal, the saying "as goes the economy, so goes platinum" may well hold true in 2015...
and that may not be an entirely positive story for either. The good news for platinum is that global car
sales continually surprises to the upside, although we remain concerned about easy credit for vehicle
purchases in the US and the rising delinquency rates on those loans.
Platinum bulls will no doubt be disappointed that even a 5 month mine strike in South Africa did
precious little to reward investors in 2014 with the white metal scoring a fall of 11.9% (its failure
starkly contrasting with palladium which saw gains of 10.9%).
We foresee some platinum price strength in early 2015 as car sales rates remain firm, but with a global
industrial production on the wane it is difficult to be overly optimistic beyond that.
In short, we see the platinum over gold premium being maintained, but well below the run rate.
AVERAGE : $876
HIGH : $975
LOW : $660
Palladium was the best performing metal (and one of the leading commodities) of 2014 with a 10.9% gain
- a performance it may struggle to emulate in 2015. With oil prices very much under the cosh, Russia may
be under significant pressure to release mine production plus any residual stocks, to the market.
Whilst South Africa seems to have put its miner strikes behind it, power outages in 2015 could hamper efforts
to rebuild mine production to former levels.
Supporting firmer prices we see auto sales remaining robust although we would question how long it could
remain so with delinquency rates on auto loans rising sharply in the US.
As such, we foresee another positive year for palladium based upon attractive supply/demand fundamentals
despite the backdrop of a relatively weak global economy. We also foresee an ongoing supply deficit in the order
of 1.4mio which will keep the metal well bid. Of the four metals, palladium remains once again our firm favorite.
16 Jan 2015