SHARPS PIXLEY Technical View: Gold Rally?
Gold
Short Term: Gold was initially down by $ 10.00 after the jobless claim data that was widely anticipated as the Fed tied QE with the unemployment rate. The biggest shock came from the negative reading of the Philly Fed Manufacturing and other market indicator shows that the Fed actually prop more liquidity. Gold rallied back and hard to reach 1687 - facing resistance at the top of the Bollinger band and as shorts covering happened, more buying emerge. Our guesses were for tomorrow is as good as the Chinese GDP numbers. Short term gold powered to 1697 and resisted 1700 and that could either mean more range trading as it consolidate the recent Bull Run. We look for support at 1670 area again. Failing that we see 1665 and 1650.
Medium Term: Note on the 4 hourly chart, prices are currently at the top range and the bull camp are roaring again. It was lifeless until a quick reversal and now it’s testing to break 1700. Our assumption that prices should find support before moving higher was proven. We view that gold is well place to test higher but would not be surprise if it remain sensitive to any data from Asia or Europe.
Looking for a possible dip to enter as many of you are doing. 1660 would be a great place but for now we monitor the current development. A break of 1700 would give it room to test 1715 area but caution remains as it failed to break 1700 after all.
Silver
Short Term: Silver followed gold reaction but we do take note at silver interest to stay above 31.00. It tested 31.05 again despite the increase in Silver ETF. The situation looks bleak if silver broke below the 31.00 area but it ride along the big wave with gold. For the short term, we look for gold to consolidate its current gains. However, we may anticipate more market players who are shorting the market to slower close their position and look to change alliance. Once consolidation, we may see higher prices as 32.00 comes knocking.
Medium Term: On the longer term outlook, we are bullish since there is a potential breakout on silver should it cross 31.60 where we look to buy and target 32.25 (assuming the gold silver ratio is in our favour). The last signal shows a top hammer head close which shows the bull could still be in control.
Look to buy at 31.65 and hold for 32.00 areas was yesterday recommendation. Should prices consolidate we look for support but would like to add position should it break 32.10.
Economic Views
| Currencies | Value | Change comment |
| Euro | 1.337 | Overall a good day as Euro gain with a confident talks among Europe leaders |
| AUD | 1.054 | Showing resilience |
| JPY | 90.00 | Rally did sustain and with the on-going BOJ and Abenomics - it is anyone guesses where this is heading. |
| US Index | 79.71 | USD weakened but overall still holding on above the 79.50 area |
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Robert Jilles
Sharps Pixley, London
www.sharpspixley.com
18 Jan 2013 | Categories: Gold
