What Next After the Massive Gold Short-Covering
The U.S. Comex gold futures rose 0.15 percent last week after declining
0.85 percent the week earlier. The futures popped 1.68 percent on Monday
but fell 1.03 percent on Tuesday to end at $1,320.60. After falling
0.95 percent last week, the Dollar Index rebounded 0.79 percent to
81.768 on Tuesday. The S&P 500 Index and the Euro Stoxx 50 Index
rose slightly by 0.16 percent and 0.57 percent respectively this week.
The U.S. 10-year government bond yield jumped 14 bp in the past two
days, reaching 2.719 percent on Tuesday. The yield was as high as 2.739
percent on 5 July as the market has been pricing in the Fed’s QE
tapering.
Better Data from China and the U.S., and More Curbs in India
The gold futures reached $1,343.60 on 12 August, the highest level in
about three weeks. The China July industrial production climbed 9.7
percent year-on-year, much higher than the 8.9 percent expected.
China’s July trade data were also better than expected, indicating the
economy is stabilizing. The gold market also likes the news that gold
purchases by China have jumped 54 percent in the first half of the year
while the ETF GLD received the first inflow in two months on 9 August.
On the other hand, India raised the gold tariffs the third time this
year in order to reduce the current account deficit by slamming down
gold imports to 850 metric tons this year from 860 metric tons last
year. Higher taxes and a lower Rupee will make local gold prices more
expensive and dampen demand. As the festival demand will start soon,
the limited imports will likely lead to an increased in gold smuggling.
Gold prices fell on Tuesday as the U.S. July retail sales increased
four months in a row, leading to a jump in the U.S. Dollar as well as
the 10-year government bond yield, confirming that the U.S. economy
continues to recover.
Massive Short-covering of Gold
The speculators net combined shorts positions in gold declined by a
staggering 23,518 contracts in the week ending 6 August. The net
non-commercial gold position also increased by the most number of
contracts since August 2012 before the QE3 announcement. However,
Barclays warned that in order for the gold prices not to fall further,
physical demand would need to reassert itself in light of the
continuation of gold-backed ETP outflows and the short covering which
has already occurred.
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14 Aug 2013 | Categories: Gold
