Chinaʼs stimulus-driven monetary expansion is temporarily stabilising US credit markets. The added liquidity has helped counter the financial stress caused by a sharp investor sell-off in regional banks amid renewed fears of contagion from loan losses and bankruptcies. Meanwhile, the AI sectorʼs closed-loop investing cycle is heightening the risk of a market correction reminiscent of the Dot-com crash. In Europe, fiscal imbalances and political paralysis are demonstrating the limits of debt-dependent growth.

In the first half of 2025, the Bundesbank removed 36,600 counterfeit euro banknotes—worth nearly €2.1 million—from circulation, an 8% increase from H2 2024. Counterfeiting in Germany remains comparatively low overall, averaging nine fake notes per 10,000 inhabitants. The Bundesbank noted counterfeiters are increasingly targeting more common denominations, but which are nevertheless largely being used for higher-value purchases. The largest increase in counterfeits involved €50 and €100 notes, while €200 and €500 fakes declined sharply. Despite the increase in cases, total financial losses from counterfeiting remained stable. For investors, this could serve as a reminder that gold, bought from a reputable dealer, is not only fraud-proof, but inflation-resistant, universally trusted, and - in 2025 - the strongest performing asset for growing and preserving wealth.

Mercadona, Spainʼs largest supermarket chain, has built a reputation as one of Europeʼs best employers by combining above-average pay, flexible work possibilities, profit-sharing, and long-term contracts. Employees earn 27% above the national minimum wage, and this rises to 72% after four years. A family-run company, Mercadona reinvests heavily in digitalisation, expansion, and community initiatives, including food donations and disaster relief. This approach has boosted its employer brand, awarding it second place in Spainʼs most respected brands index. In 2024, the supermarket achieved record growth with €38.8 billion in gross sales and €1.38 billion net profit, surpassing its annual targets.

Precious Metals and Commodities

Gold and silver are likely to experience some sideways movement in the short term as markets absorb the recent rally. Meanwhile, copper, oil, and agricultural commodities are projected to remain relatively stable in the short and medium term. Nevertheless, all precious metals and commodities continue to follow a long-term upward trajectory. 

Market Risk Signal

Gold vs stocks forecasting model

The current level of debt relative to real economic output is similar to the situation in the Germanic nations prior to the World Wars in the 1910s, and in France leading up to the French Revolution in the 1790s. In such high-debt scenarios, the likelihood of instability and a deleveraging process is greatly increased. Since gold holdings are typically free from anotherʼs liability, the deleveraging process has a gentler impact on gold prices than on equities. The anticipated deleveraging process can be modelled using coupled differential equations, which suggest that gold will likely outperform stocks from 2022 onwards. The model was calibrated in 2019 and has not since been adjusted for new input data.

According to the model, the peak at which economic activity assets (such as equities) will outperform gold is around Q3 2022. From that point forward, the model predicts an outperformance of gold relative to stocks (light line). When compared to real data on the stock-to-gold price ratio (dotted line), the trend of gold outperforming stocks appears to have begun early in 2022. Whether a short-term reversal will occur remains uncertain; however, the long-term trend towards stronger gold performance remains evident.

Gold Feature

Earlier this month, silver soared past its former all-time high of $50/oz to a new all-time high of $54/oz for the first time in history, surpassing the peaks of the 1980 and 2011 bull markets. While precious metals have since experienced a needed pullback to develop new support levels, the strength of silverʼs rally, coupled with the drivers behind goldʼs price movements, supports the long- term uptrend in precious metals.

Silver prices have risen by more than 80% this year, with the most recent run triggering a supply squeeze in Londonʼs bullion market. The Royal Mint ramped up production in response to an influx of retail and institutional orders in October, but had warned of possible delivery delays as inventories ran critically low. The shortage pushed lease rates up to multi-year highs, according to Bloomberg. Market participants cited a sharp rise in demand from India in recent weeks, along with a shrinking supply of tradeable bars and mounting concern over potential US tariffs, as key drivers of the recent surge.

Despite its recent strength, silver remains undervalued, with demand far outpacing supply. In October, the market slipped into backwardation, a rare situation where buyers pay more for immediate delivery than for future contracts. Backwardation reached an extraordinary 20% annualised rate in mid-October, reflecting rising investor appetite for tangible assets. Another way to gauge the relative value of silverʼs price is through the gold-to-silver ratio.

This is calculated by measuring how many ounces of silver, in dollar amounts, are equal to one ounce of gold. The lowest ratio in recent history was around 15:1 in the mid-1970s, while the highest was 113:1 in April 2020. The most recent drop came in 2011, when the ratio fell to 33:1. Currently, it sits at 82:1, further supporting the argument that silver has room to appreciate further as its bull market gathers momentum.

24 Nov 2025 | Categories: Gold, Silver, China, US, Platinum, Palladium, UK

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