ROSS NORMAN : Gold and the Dog Days of Summer

There is a rather tasteless joke that asks where you will find a dog without any legs ? ... Precisely where you left it. I am just back from holidays and that my friends has been how the gold market looks, precisely as it was... except.

The chart below has been borrowed from John Reade's twitter page and for the first time in 2018 gives me a really warm feeling towards gold prices. 

It shows that the specs on COMEX have finally surrendered their long position and the market is now at last clear for a rally. Yes, the US dollar has provided headwinds this year, but it has been that overhang of stale spec longs that for me has weighed on sentiment in the market.

The reduction in net longs has been the equivalent sale of 700 tonnes of gold that the market has absorbed during 2018 (down from about 712 tonnes to just 12 tonnes net long).

With the market in the dog days of mid-Summer doldrums it probably seems unlikely ... but better a little early than a little late. This old dog might surprise us all yet.

Ross Norman


Sharps Pixley, London

03 Jul 2018

About the author

Ross Norman

Ross started his business career with business guru Sir Clive Sinclair of Sinclair Research in Cambridge, before joining Johnson Matthey as Gold Refining Manager (then the worlds largest gold refiners), then as a gold trader at NM Rothschild & Sons (the Chairman of the London Gold Fixing) and later Credit Suisse, where he was a Senior Dealer in physical bullion trading.

Ross has an enviable record within the London Bullion Market in forecasting the gold price over the last decade and is frequently sought by the media for commentary on the bullion markets. Ross has made frequent appearances on TV (BBC, CNBC, CBC) in newspapers (FT. Wall Street Journal) as well as in the newswires (Reuters, Bloomberg and Dow Jones).