02 March 2022Palladium prices had been trending sharply downwards in the second half of 2021, but Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the resultant severe sanctions imposed to try and cripple the Russian economy have changed palladium supply/demand fundamentals drastically and the price has picked up strongly which has caused us to hugely revise our previous pessimistic price forecasts for the metal this year.
27 February 2022Russia's apparently unprovoked attack on Ukraine has already received almost universal condemnation and is leading to the imposition of severe sanctions designed to adversely affect the Russian domestic economy. Russian banks are also being cut off from the key SWIFT international payments system. Coupled with rising inflation this could all have a positive effect on the gold price and hit equity markets negatively despite their end-week respective moves in the other direction.
25 February 2022Contrary to our initial beliefs, it appears that Russia has gone ahead with a full-scale military assault on Ukraine with somewhat mixed results so far. Gold, silver, equities and bitcoin have been hugely volatile in their response so far but we firmly believe that the Russian move, coupled with perhaps enhanced inflation fears, remains positive for precious metals and distinctly negative for equities and bitcoin once the markets settle down.
21 February 2022With the weekend passing without the presumed inevitable Russian onslaught on Ukraine, gold and silver have been marked down a little in the absence of U.S. markets for Presidents Day. However the global geopolitical situation remains tense and precious metals will likely continue to benefit accordingly.
19 February 2022Continuing fears of a Russia/Ukraine military conflict, coupled with high inflation, has kept gold and silver prices riding high, but they still failed to close the week above $1,900 and $24 respectively, although we don't think it will take them long to breach these key levels. That suggests that our previously predicted year end levels may prove to be conservative.
15 February 2022Tensions have eased a little over Western accusations that Russia was about to invade Ukraine as the former reports that some of its troops and military equipment amassed on Ukraine's border are returning to base. The possible relaxation of tensions has seen a sharp dip in precious metals prices, but we question whether there was ever a Russian intention to invade at all.
13 February 2022The end of the past week has seen a decent uplift in the gold price as the true likely effects of the recent FOMC meeting deliberations have received more detailed attention. This has been bolstered by even higher U.S. CPI data for January ad the continued political posturing around a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.
09 February 2022New gold withdrawal figures for January from the Shanghai Gold Exchange demonstrate that Chinese gold demand is still riding high and should help counter any demand headwinds that may be developing elsewhere.
08 February 2022Gold and silver are beginning to behave as predicted post the sharp downturns which followed last month's FOMC meeting.. Latest analysis from Wells Fargo Bank puts the gold price at over $2,000 by year end as a consequence of the Fed's planned moves, while inflation may well be running at around double the level the latest CPI figures would suggest.
05 February 2022Markets have now had time to settle down after the fall-out from last week's FOMC meeting and some new statistical data on the U.S. GDP and the jobs market. Gold, after an initial dip, has recovered much of its lost ground while equities are looking a little weaker, but it's probably still too early to say how things will ultimately play out in the U.S. and globally.
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